Global Cancer Rates to Skyrocket by 2030

In no small part because people are too fat.

The global burden of cancer will surge more than 75% by the year 2030, new research shows.

"On the basis of projected global population changes and the observed trends of several common cancers, we predict the global number of new cancer cases to rise to 22.2 million by 2030 — a 75% increase from the 12.7 million cases estimated for 2008," first author Freddie Bray, PhD, from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in Lyon, France, told Medscape Medical News.

Dr. Bray said this study demonstrates "not only how an increasing cancer burden will fall predominantly on countries that are in the process of social and economic transition, but also that the types of cancer that are most common are changing."

"The broad range of countries for which the 'Westernization' effect is in operation is a startling observation," he added.

The study is published online June 1 in the Lancet Oncology.

Unique Study

The researchers used estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality of 27 cancers in 184 countries in 2008 contained in the IARC GLOBOCAN database. They projected how the cancer burden is likely to change by 2030 in light of predicted changes in population size, aging, and trends in incidence rates of the most common types of cancer in different countries.

"This is the first overview of cancer burden to describe the cancer incidence and mortality patterns and trends in relation to the Human Development Index [HDI], a summary indicator based on life expectancy, education, and income in a given country," said Dr. Bray.

The researchers report that countries with a low HDI score (predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa) currently have a high incidence of cancers associated with infection, particularly cervical cancer and, depending on region or country, cancer of the stomach and liver and Kaposi's sarcoma.

In contrast, countries with a high HDI score currently have a greater burden of cancers more commonly associated with smoking, reproductive factors, obesity, and diet.

Kudos, fatsos.